In 1992, I bought a Ricky Ervins football card at a baseball card show for $6. Why? Ervins looked to be the next great NFL running back, piling up nearly 700 yards in his rookie season, topping it off with 72 yards on 13 carries in the Super Bowl. His rookie card, along with the famous Juan Gonzalez Donruss reverse negative, were going to be the centerpieces to my college tuition and financial freedom.
Three years later, Ervins was out of the league, never living up to the promise he showed in 1991. By the time he retired, his card was worth about as much as the dog shit that dots my backyard.
So I admit I’m not exactly the world’s foremost investment adviser. When I was young I invested in baseball and football cards, not quite understanding the concept that it was scarcity that drove up the price for older cards and that modern cards had more print runs than Lord of the Rings. When I got older, I invested in a pillow under my mattress, shaken by the Great Recession of ’08.
Needless to say, I’m not the world’s greatest investment mind.
But apparently I’m not alone. Last week, Standard and Poor’s, the rating agency, downgraded the US Government’s rating from a pristine AAA to AA+. I’m no ratings expert so I didn’t have a clue what that meant, but the world was shocked. For the first time ever, the US had a less than perfect rating. Interest rates would shoot up, making it even harder to get money and potentially driving us into another recession. The stock market would crash, wiping out the recovery from the Great Recession. Gold would be worth more than a Honus Wagner in mint condition.
So I waited with bated breath over the weekend to see how the markets would respond. Stocks tumbled, as predicted. Gold inflated, as predicted. But, oddly, money flowed directly into the cause of the collapse – government debt.
Apple, you know, that company with $73 billion George Washington’s cluttering their bank account – so much money that they’ve decided to build a new corporate headquarters that doubles as a futuristic spaceship – saw their stock price drop 20 points, or more than 5%. A company that’s cultivated a cult following that would buy a dried up boogar if Apple slapped their logo on it and did some slick marketing, apparently isn’t a safe investment.
Contrast that with US government debt – that same debt that Standard and Poor’s downgraded – in the form of Treasury bills. Because money poured into them, the interest rate dropped as much as .2%. Why? Investors believe they are the safest investment money can buy. Safer even than a pillow of cash under the mattress.
Which is why I’m reconsidering my thinking that I’m a terrible investor. Sounds like I’m nestled smack dab in the middle of the curve. Time to invest in Toby Gehrhart rookie cards, baby!